Alfonso Gauna - Research

Working Papers

"Models of Balance of Payments Crises with Capital Controls" with Emilio Espino and Andy Neumeyer

Abstract: We examine techniques to delay the collapse of unsustainable fixed exchange rates caused by excessive domestic credit growth. Capital controls, combined with free trade, postpone the collapse, resulting in a trade deficit and consumption boom. Real interest rates rise above international levels, and reserves depletion triggers anticipated devaluation. Delaying monetization while maintaining fiscal policy prolongs low inflation, but leads to higher inflation later. Introducing import restrictions alongside capital controls sustains the fixed exchange rate but misallocates resources, creating a wedge between domestic and international prices. This wedge, worsened by excessive money supply expansion, leads to no exports.

Publications

"What Works for Active Labor Market Policies? A Meta-Analysis of RCT Findings" with E. Levy Yeyati, M. Montané, and L. Sartorio

Other work

"Labor conflict and sectoral wage setting in Argentina" with Dario Judzik and Eduardo Levy Yeyati

"A Rent-Seeking Coalition and Efficiency Losses" Udergraduate thesis